Final Senate predictions

Looks like Republicans will pick up eight or nine seats but fall just short of taking the Senate.  Election Projection has the Senate evenly divided between the Democrats and Republicans at 49 seats each with 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats and giving the Democrats control just barely.  Five Thirty Eight gives the Democrats 50 seats with 2 Independents and 48 Republicans.

Eight states are expected to flip to Republicans.

Arkansas—Boozman beats Lincoln by 16 points

Colorado—Buck barely beats Bennet by 2 points

Illinois—Kirk takes Obama’s seat beating Giannoulias by 1 to 2 points

Indiana—Coats beats Ellsworth by 19 points

Nevada—Angle beats Reid by 2 to 3 points

North Dakota—Hoeven beats Potter by 41 to 47 points

Pennsylvania—Toomey beats Sestak by 3 to 4 points

Wisconsin—Johnson beats Feingold by 6 points.

Note that the race is very, very close in Colorado, Illinois, and Nevada and fairly close in Pennsylvania.  If these races went to the Democrat, which is possible, then Republicans would be held to a pickup of just 4 seats.

Other interesting races:

California—Boxer expected to beat Fiorina by 5 to 6 points.

Delaware—Coons should easily beat O’Donnell by 15 to 17 points.

Kentucky—Paul will defeat Conway by 9 to 10 points.

In two states the Republican is expected to win but by less than 50% of the vote:

Florida—Rubio is expected to win but with 45% of the vote.  Crist will come in second at 31% with Meek trailing at 22%.

Alaska—Miller is expected to beat Glassman but Murkowski might get as much as 33% of the vote through a write in.  If that happens, and it’s likely, Miller would become Senator with just 38% of the vote.

Caution:  Many of these projections depend upon turnout.  For example, in Nevada about 6,600 more Democrats than Republicans have voted early in Nevada, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports.  That could be a good sign for Reid.  We’ll see.