As you know, presidents aren’t elected by winning the
popular vote but by winning the
electoral college vote which is awarded state by state usually according to a
winner takes all formula. Each state
gets a number of electoral votes equal to its number of Senators and
Representatives. Currently there are 538
electoral votes. A candidate for president
must receive the majority of those votes—or 270 votes—to win.
Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics has
taken a look at the electoral map for 2012.
Sabato estimates that as of now, Republicans have a lock or lead in 24
states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247
electoral votes. He breaks his count
down this way:
Barring a Carter-like
collapse, President Obama is assured of 175 electoral votes from 12 deep-blue
states and the District of Columbia: California (55 electoral votes),
Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maryland (10),
Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Rhode Island (4), Vermont
(3), Washington (12) and Washington, D.C. (3). Three more states are not quite
as certain, but still likely Democratic: Maine (4), Minnesota (10) and Oregon
(7). Even though Minnesota is competitive enough to vote Republican under the
right set of conditions, it is the state with the longest Democratic presidential
streak, dating to 1976.
Four other states
usually end up Democratic for president, but the margins can vary considerably
from year to year: Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (20 and
Wisconsin (10). A low Hispanic vote in 2012 could flip New Mexico; Al Gore
carried it by only 366 votes in 2000 and a concerted effort by George W. Bush
flipped it in 2004. Deep-seated economic problems might cause Michigan to
reconsider its party ties. Narrowly Democratic in 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin is a
cauldron of unpredictable countertrends. Pennsylvania has frustrated all GOP
attempts to win it over since 1988, yet recent polls have shown new weakness
for Obama here. These 51 electoral votes will be GOP targets if conditions in
the fall of 2012 approximate today’s.
Meanwhile, the
Republicans have their own Red firewall. Almost any sentient GOP nominee will
carry Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky
(8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3),
Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6),
West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3). These 18 states have 105 electoral votes.
The Obama forces have
bravely boasted that they can turn Arizona (11), Georgia (16) and Texas (38),
mainly because of growing Latino vote power. After Democrats’ surprise
victories in states such as Florida and Virginia in 2008, one shouldn’t reject
these assertions out of hand. Still, with the economy in the tank, electoral
claims on these big three will likely go the way of John McCain’s early
declaration in ‘08 that California was within his grasp. Count another 65 Red
votes here.
Four years ago even
many optimistic Democrats didn’t really believe they would pick up Indiana
(11), North Carolina (15) or an Omaha electoral vote in Nebraska, which like
Maine awards one vote per congressional district. All three went for Obama by
small margins. Indiana is very likely to desert Obama next time, as is the
Cornhusker district, barring another big Obama victory. The Democrats chose
Charlotte for their national convention, and they will make a big play to keep
the Tar Heel state. As of now, that looks tough. Thus, Republicans lead for 26
more electors. Missouri was the sole squeaker that went for McCain; few believe
it will be tight next year, and the GOP has those 10 votes, too.
Sabato says there will be seven swing states in the 2012
election: Colorado (9), Florida
(29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13). So, these are the states to watch. Keep in mind that according to Sabato, Obama
can count on about 247 electoral votes.
Republicans can count on 206.
Obama needs 23 electoral votes to get to the magical 270 winning
number. Republicans need 64. That means Obama has many more ways to win
than the Republican. For example, he
could get over the top by just winning Florida or by winning Ohio or Virginia
and a couple of the smaller swing states.
Republican have to win at least two of the big swing states or they are
out of luck.
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