A new presidential election forecast model (called the
Time-For-Change model) projects that Obama has a good chance of being
re-elected with a likely 52% of the popular vote.
The Time-for-Change model has correctly predicted the winner
of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. The model is based upon three factors: (1) the
growth rate of the economy in the second quarter of the election year (Q2GDP), (2)
the president’s net approval rating in late June or early July of the election
year (JUNEAPP) and (3) the time-for-change factor (CHANGE), whether the president’s
party has been in office for one term or two or more terms. The model predicts
the incumbent party’s share of the major party vote (PV).
The formula for predicting the incumbent party candidate’s
vote is:
PV = 51.7 + (.11*JUNEAPP) + (.54*Q2GDP) – (4.4*CHANGE) where
JUNEAPP= the president’s net approval rating in late June or
early July of the election year
Q2GDP= the growth rate of the economy in the second quarter
of the election year
and
CHANGE= zero if the
president’s party has been in office for one term and one if the president’s
party has been in office for two or more terms.
Here are the model’s predictions given various values for
JUNEAPP and Q2GDP.
Bottom line: Obama
has a good chance of winning provided neither his approval ratings nor the
growth rate of the economy deteriorate much below their current level between
now and the election.
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