We now have a prediction concerning who will win the 2016
election from Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University. Norpoth’s “PrimaryModel” has correctly predicted the winner of presidential elections in all
five elections going back to 1996. This
year Norpoth says Donald Trump will win with 52.5% of the vote compared to 47.5%
for Clinton. Norpoth says there is a 87
% probability that this prediction will be correct.
Before you get TOO depressed, a number of other forecasts—See PolyVote—have predicted that Clinton
will win by a similar margin.
Stay tuned.
No comments:
Post a Comment