State of the race as 8/4/2016

As of August 4, we have updated projections for the 2016 election from seven different forecasters.  Six of the seven have Clinton winning by as much as 347 electoral votes.  She needs 270 to win.

Electoral-Vote.com has Clinton winning even without Florida or Ohio which EV says are too close to call. In other words, EV says right now Clinton would win with 273 electoral votes even if Trump took BOTH FL and OH.  That’s huge.  And, 270ToWin has Clinton within 32 electoral votes of winning with 134 EVs too close to call.   Just a few toss-up states would give her a win.

That is all good news and, of course includes the huge bump Clinton got from her well-received convention and Trump’s disastrous convention.  As Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight points out, If Clinton can hang on to her current lead until after Labor Day, she will be in a good, almost perfect position going into the debates in October. 

But, don’t get the idea that the election is won.  It is not.  Clinton continues to need your contributions, support and vote.  We need to reach out to Independents, young voters, and traditional/non-tea party Republicans.  See my previous posts for talking points.

    

FORECASTER		Clinton	Trump	TossUp
Center for Politics	8/4	347	191
FiveThirtyEight	8/4	336	202
ElectionGraphs	8/4	341	197
270ToWin	8/4	238	120	134
Princeton Election Consortium	8/4	326	212
Electoral-Vote.com	8/4	273	218	47
Election Projection	8/4	341	197