THE TRUMP ECONOMY- Not Much of a Record

In an August 20, 2019 article in the Washington Post, Heather Long provided a comparison of the economy under Trump vs. Obama in 15 charts.  See the. Charts here:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/20/trump-v-obama-economy-charts/

Below, I’ve updated the final numbers Long included on her charts with the most recent numbers through the end of 2019.  You can use the numbers below to bring Long’s charts up-to-date.

What is most interesting about Long’s charts is that very little has changed since Obama left office.  Just about every measure has continued on the same trend.  For example, U.S. Unemployment after peaking in 2009 began declining under Obama and has continued to decline under Trump.   Economic growth under Trump has followed pretty much the Obama pattern. Middle-Class income began trending up in 2012 under Obama and has continued to increase.  The Stock Market after declining sharply under Bush began trending up under Obama and has continued gains under Trump.  The same is true for the other measures.  U.S. Government Debt is one exception.  It was trending down under Obama and has gone up sharply under Trump, largely due to his tax cuts for the rich and corporations. Another negative trend under Trump is the Number of Americans without health insurance coverage which was trending downward under Obama and has reversed course under Trump. Finally, Trump's trade war hasn't accomplished very much.  In fact, the trade deficit has grown under Trump in spite of his tough talk and unilateral actions to supposedly "put America first."

Trump plans to run on the performance of the economy during his first three years in office.  Long’s charts show that the most Trump can legitimately claim is that he did not screw things up too any great extent.  Where he can be credited with policies that impact the economy, the results of his actions have been uniformly negative.  He made things worse or reversed a positive trend.  For example, more people are without health insurance because of his policy concerning Obamacare and Medicaid and government debt is growing at a rapid pace largely due to Trump’s tax cuts.  That’s. about all the change he can legitimately claim, which is hardly a great record to run on.

Updaters of Long’s charts are below.  Replace the December numbers below with the August numbers in Long’s charts.

CHART	AUGUST 2019	DECEMBER 2019
JOB GAINS	165K	180K
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE	3.7%	3.6%
ECONOMIC GROWTH	2.1	2.1
MIDDLE-CLASS INCOME	$61,372	$61,937
STOCK MARKET	25,886	29,276
FOOD STAMPS	36.8M	34.4M
MANUFACTURING	108	104.6
HOME PRICES	$285,700	$275,500
GAS PRICES	$2.62	$2.57
FEDERAL DEBT	79.5	78.1
WAGES	3.2	3.0
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE	135.7	128.2
TRADE DEFICIT	$633 BILLION	$621 BILLION
UNINSURED AMERICANS	30.1M	30.4M
BUSINESS INVESTMENT	-0.6%	-0.1%